QUOTE(joescoundrel @ Sep 14 2005, 02:18 PM)
Matindi talaga itong si Armin Luistro, hindi ko alam na siya's isa na palang expert on the military psyche, at erudite pala siya sa civil-military relations. Imagine, proclaiming that the AFP - particularly the Junior Officers - are all just itching to use the dismissal of the three impeachment complaints as an excuse to go into some (there's that term again) military adventurism.
Here's Amado Doronilla's take on Luistro's comments re. military adventurism.
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Waking up a sleeping tigerFirst posted 01:37am (Mla time) Sept 14, 2005
By Amando Doronila
Inquirer News Service
LAST week, Brother Armin Luistro, president of the De La Salle University System-turned-political activist, warned of seething unrest among young officers of the Armed Forces, saying that "pent-up feelings against the system" could prompt them to seize power.
Luistro, who is also the convenor of the Coalition for Truth, which is pressing for the resignation of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, was referring to the disgruntlement in the military over the controversial appointment of Lt. Gen. Edilberto Adan as officer in charge of the strategic Southern Command, instead of Maj. Gen. Samuel Bagasin, who had been recommended for the position by the Board of Generals.
"Capitalizing on these pent-up feelings about the system," Luistro said, "the young officers can decide to venture into politics and take advantage of the political crisis to catapult themselves [to] power."
Putting his coalition's spin on the military unrest, Luistro said the longer Ms Arroyo stayed in office, the danger of military intervention to resolve the present political standoff looms large.
In an attempt to sow division in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), Luistro said the threat of military adventurism did not come from generals who "enjoyed extravagant lifestyles," but from junior officers exposed to dangers in combat zones.The promotion of generals has traditionally been a source of discontent in the AFP, and the Adan promotion is not the first time generals have been upset over such decisions.
What's different is that Luistro blew up the episode as a trigger for a coup d'etat.
Luistro was not only issuing a warning but appears to be inciting the junior officers -- the so-called "Young Turks" -- to grab power, even as the senior officers seem more restrained in accommodating the impulses of military adventurism, which has been their fashion since 1986. That year a successful people power revolt unleashed a series of coup attempts that threatened the overthrow of the newly restored democracy under President Corazon Aquino.
In his haste to force the resignation of Ms Arroyo and in his frustration over the dismissal by the House of Representatives of the impeachment complaints against the President, Luistro and his cohorts in the Coalition for Truth have engaged in the dangerous game of awakening the sleeping tiger of military adventurism. Luistro's agitation followed the call a week earlier issued by Aquino to the soldiers to join the march she and her associates led from St. Peter Church to the Batasan [Legislature] complex to put pressure on the members of the House to send the complaints to the Senate for trial.
Aquino's call was a bit surprising because in 1989, it was a cabal of young officers who spearheaded the coup attempt and the attack on Malacañang. On the morning of the coup, a cabal led by then Capt. Danilo Lim, suddenly appeared on national TV, in what looked like a junta, and startled the nation with the announcement of the formation of a provisional government.
In July 2003, it was a group of young officers calling themselves the Magdalo group and led by Lt.(s.g.) Antonio Trillanes that staged a mutiny at the Oakwood apartments, and the issue that provoked the mutiny was the grievances over military supplies and equipment for soldiers fighting the war against separatist rebels in Mindanao.
What these outbreaks show is that military adventurism has found a fertile soil in the Armed Forces and lies just under a thin skin.
It remains to be seen whether the controversy and unrest over Adan's appointment constitute sufficient provocation to prompt the young officers to stage a coup or Luistro is misreading the mood of the military. The coups of the 1980s proved to be bloody encounters (although loyalist and rebel troops were quite restrained in shooting one another, averting carnage). Thus, when the general staff led by Gen. Angelo Reyes withdrew support from the government of President Joseph Estrada, Reyes took care that the generals were unified and that the chain of command was not broken.
Should the young officers, fed up with the system in the Armed Forces and with the inconclusive political stalemate, stage a coup on their own, Luistro and his cohorts cannot be assured that a military intervention at this time -- whether initiated by the senior officers or by the Young Turks -- will be as bloodless and peaceful as those in 1986 and Edsa People Power II in 2001.
Luistro and his cabal might be misleading themselves in thinking that when the officers make a move this time, the intervention will be a walk in the park.
One unnamed officer has been reported as saying that the soldiers have not intervened in the present crisis because they wanted first to make sure the people would back them up. According to this report, officers had been discussing among themselves whether to wait for the people to go to the streets, or move in and then ask the people to support them.
The first scenario is possible if Luistro's cohorts, including Aquino, can mobilize a human wave of people on a scale that would impress upon the soldiers the idea that it is time to withdraw support from the President, and for them to tip the balance against the regime. So far, the groups that have been striving to assemble another people power have failed to do so.
Apparently, Luistro reckoned that the Adan controversy could spark a military intervention, after his group of militants failed to ignite a mass street insurrection following the dismissal of the impeachment complaints.